eVTOLs – The Future of Short Distance Air Transportation

The latest software drop of Tesla’s full self-driving AI is nothing short of incredible.

You wouldn’t know it by the name – a simple sequential release from Version 12.4 to Version 12.5 – doesn’t sound remarkable…

But not only has it demonstrated the ability to navigate out of parking garages, around random construction on roads, and avoid dangerous driving situations…

It feels remarkably human.

And it doesn’t matter what the conditions are. Dark, rainy, cloudy, stormy, snowy, or just big clear blue skies above – it can handle it all.

The latest release is so smooth and has eliminated what might be described as being unnecessarily cautious. It feels like it has developed the kind of human instinct that human drivers develop over years of experience – the instinct to know when and how to deal with any traffic situation and at what speed.

But I’ve recently been thinking about traffic itself… the kind caused mostly by human drivers.

A Better Way to Fly Through Traffic

In a world where all cars are autonomous, road congestion will definitely be relieved.

Autonomous vehicles will be able to flow in traffic far more efficiently than the inefficient and sometimes irrational habits of many human drivers.

But that’s a long way off.

Which got me thinking more about the next generation of air transportation, specifically short-distance commuter travel.

This is the realm of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and fortunately, there have been some exciting developments this year.

After all, what’s not to like about the possibility of taking a trip from a location in a major city like New York directly to Newark airport in all of nine minutes when it takes us nearly an hour by car or taxi/Uber?

Source: Archer

Or how about turning a one-way commute from the suburbs that normally takes 60-90 minutes into just a 10-20 minute flight on an eVTOL? Just imagine being able to recapture two hours of lost time every weekday.

I know that it might feel like the day will never come. But with the post-pandemic return to the office, the demand for services like this has never been higher.

And prominent eVTOL aerospace companies have been making great progress.

Archer

Just last month, Archer Aviation (ACHR) received its Part 135 Air Carrier and Operator Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which is necessary to operate as a commercial airline.

Archer’s Midnight, shown above, is a four-passenger seat eVTOL, with a range of up to 100 miles at a speed of up to 150 miles per hour. Its rotors transition from vertical to horizontal when in full flight, and they return to vertical again when landing.

Archer already has a $1 billion order from United Airlines and is planning on using automotive manufacturer Stellantis to build its eVTOLs.

Another interesting deal from Archer is a partnership with Signature Aviation, which maintains the largest network of private aviation terminals in the world. This immediately gives Archer access to the necessary aviation infrastructure for launching commercial services with its commercial aviation partners.

Archer’s remaining regulatory task is to get type certification for Midnight, which will confirm that the aircraft meets all design and safety requirements of the FAA for commercial transport.

Joby

On a very similar trajectory as Archer is its closest competitor, Joby Aviation, which received its Part 135 Certification from the FAA in 2022.

Like Archer, Joby also has rotors that transition from vertical to horizontal throughout a flight and has four passenger seats. It’s capable of flying at up to 200 miles per hour.

Both the Archer and Joby eVTOLs operate at 20-25 fewer decibels than a normal helicopter. That means that these eVTOLs are four or five times quieter than traditional helicopters. This is a dramatic improvement to both the surrounding environment, as well as a far more pleasant ride for passengers.

Joby has already launched a software platform designed for air taxi operators called ElevateOS, which is designed to simplify the launch of commercial eVTOL air taxi services. This was a smart move to develop this technology in advance of the final approvals of its eVTOL for commercial flight.

And earlier this year, Joby also structured a deal with a major private aviation company, Atlantic Aviation, to provide similar infrastructure as Archer’s deal with Signature.

Commercial Flights in Europe

Also worth mentioning is Germany’s Volocopter, with its unique hub and spoke design shown below.

Source: Volocopter

Volocopter has received regulatory approvals to begin a number of limited routes in the coming weeks around the Paris Olympics:

• Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport to Paris-Le Bourget airport – integrating successfully into the skies of Europe’s busiest airport
• Vertiport of Austerlitz barge to Paris Heliport – integrating a connection over the densely populated urban area of Paris
• Paris Heliport to Airfield of Saint-Cyr-l’École (Versailles) – validating the route potential for tourism use cases.

This is all to show that we won’t be waiting 5 or 10 years before this next generation of air transportation becomes a reality.

It’s happening, this year, in Paris, with Volocopter.

And both Joby and Archer, in partnership with their partners, are on track to launch services next year.

It’s incredibly exciting and I can’t wait to try out the new services.

And I don’t think I’ll be riding alone.

Cheaper, Safer, and Faster Than a Taxi

Current expectations are that the initial cost per mile for one passenger will be in the $3-6 range. That’s on the higher end of the going rate of a New York City taxi cab.

I believe that once a service scales to regular flights throughout the day, the prices will drop closer to $3 a mile very quickly. This will put these kinds of air transportation services within the reach of a large population.

And the real kicker will be when autonomous flight technology is adopted. Joby and Archer were smart to pursue their certifications for piloted eVTOLs. It’s a faster path toward commercialization and allows the companies to scale their manufacturing.

Autonomous flights can follow later. The impact, of course, is to further reduce the cost per mile.

So that $3 will drop likely to $1 with full autonomy, making a ticket for the 13-mile journey from Wall Street to Newark just a $13 ride. Even at $2 a mile per seat, it quickly becomes a mass-market form of air transportation.

Autonomous technology is what will transform the way we travel, not just on surface roads and highways, but across the skies.