In October 2020, a group of eight countries gathered together to sign the Artemis Accords.
I doubt many of us have even heard of this. The arcane world of space law doesn’t often come up in conversation at the dinner table.
But given the latest developments in space exploration, particularly from a geopolitical perspective, it’s about to get a lot of attention.
Opted Out
Named after NASA’s Artemis program – which was established in 2017 with the goal to return to the moon this decade – NASA and the U.S. State Department drafted the Artemis Accords as a multilateral agreement.
The goal of the Artemis Accords was to establish a framework for the exploration of the moon and the rest of our solar system.
Since that time, 43 countries have signed the Accords.
Noticeably absent is China.
Not only did China refuse to participate, but in the summer of 2021, it established its own multilateral framework under its International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Ten countries have joined the ILRS, including Russia, Belarus, Egypt, Pakistan, South Africa, and Thailand.
Of all those involved, only China and Russia have the aerospace technology to establish a lunar outpost.
Which is what makes recent developments so significant.
Yesterday, China made history.
Marked
China just successfully returned a metal vacuum container full of lunar soil from the far side of the moon – something that has never been done before.
The short clip below shows the spacecraft, which held the container, that landed in Inner Mongolia. The location and spacecraft were very intentionally marked and noted as the “property of” China with the planted national flag.
The return of this spacecraft to Earth is the pinnacle of China’s Chang’e-6 mission to the far side of the moon, which I covered in Outer Limits – China’s Lunar Ambition on June 4.
The far side of the moon is strategically important for establishing a lunar outpost. It is believed that there are higher concentrations of water there as well as other valuable metals.
Water, of course, is necessary for life support systems. It can also be broken down into its two constituent parts – hydrogen and oxygen.
And with these two elements, we can make rocket fuel.
This enables more efficient operations for both returning spacecraft into lunar orbit from the moon’s surface and, eventually, back to Earth.
It also presents the opportunity for manufacturing rocket fuel for missions farther afield, like to Mars.
China’s Chang’e-6 collected about 2 kilograms of material from the moon… launched the samples back into lunar orbit… and transferred the container to another spacecraft – the one shown above.
It’s a remarkable achievement for any country. And what’s within that container is incredibly valuable information regarding the selection of a location for a lunar outpost.
The Current Cold, Hard Reality
China is ahead. It has critical information about the moon that the U.S. and other Western governments do not have.
While many scientists are cheering the accomplishment, there are others in panic mode who understand the potential geopolitical ramifications.
After all, China plans to put its own astronauts on the moon by 2030 and have a permanent lunar outpost by 2035.
And NASA’s Artemis program has suffered delays caused by bureaucracy and a long list of failures from key supplier Boeing.
By way of example, two NASA astronauts are stuck on the International Space Station (ISS) with no scheduled return date due to mechanical issues with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft.
In the worst-case scenario, NASA may have to call on Elon Musk and his team at SpaceX to retrieve the astronauts.
This situation is symbolic of the current cold, hard reality.
It’s a race to both establish a presence on the moon and access the most strategic resources. It’s reminiscent of the late 1960s when the U.S. was competing with Russia.
Only this time, it’s China. And China has the technology, the money, and the political willpower to do what needs to be done.
But all is not lost…
SpaceX is increasingly the only company that could possibly enable NASA to beat China in the present-day space race. If SpaceX were a publicly traded company right now, I’d be banging the table to buy the stock.
SpaceX not only has the rockets and the spacecraft… it’s also the one company I’d trust to build the lunar lander for the Artemis project. And to put it simply, there isn’t a single company or country with a better track record of launching payloads into space than SpaceX.
And if the story couldn’t be better, SpaceX can do it far cheaper than anyone else because of its advanced technology and the reusability of its rockets and spacecraft.
This must be an uncomfortable position for some government bureaucrats to depend so heavily on a single private company, not even a group of public companies. NASA’s administrator, Bill Nelson, pretty much summed it up…
“A lot depends on SpaceX,” he said when referring to Project Artemis.
But given the gravity of the lunar race, NASA and the Department of Defense should be going all in on SpaceX…
Access Prohibited
SpaceX has the track record and the technology, and it’s the best way to reduce the risk of any further delays.
It seems so obvious.
When China landed the Chang’e-6 on the far side of the moon, it unfurled its national flag and made sure to capture the moment.
Source: China National Space Administration
And we can be sure that China will plant the flag at its future location for the International Lunar Research Station.
The key point for us to understand is what that might mean. As Section 10 of the Artemis Accords explicitly states…
The Signatories affirm that the extraction of space resources does not inherently constitute national appropriation under Article II of the Outer Space Treaty, and that contracts and other legal instruments related to space resources should be consistent with that Treaty.
As a reminder, China refused to participate in the Artemis Accords and is not a signatory.
It did, however, sign the Outer Space Treaty in December of 1966. The treaty is light on language and specifics though, and it’s also almost 60 years old.
It states that…
Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.
However, it doesn’t explicitly declare that certain territories on a celestial body can’t be controlled by a nation-state.
What would stop China from declaring that the U.S. and any non-signatories to the International Lunar Research Station are prohibited from landing – or establishing a lunar base – within a radius of 500 kilometers? For the reason of “safety and security” or something like that.
What would give any country the right to declare that they can’t do that? And on what grounds could a country declare that the Artemis Accords can somehow override the International Lunar Research Station and its signatories?
And if we’re honest, at 384,000 miles away from Earth, there’s not a whole lot anyone can do about it.
I can envision bureaucrats and diplomats hemming and hawing with outrage over tea and crumpets.
Such bluster and pontification are such a waste of time.
We shouldn’t mistake what’s happening right now. This is an arms race. And it’s not just to become the world’s artificial intelligence (AI) superpower by 2030, as China intends to be.
It’s also to plant the flag on the far side of the moon and claim the most valuable lunar resources, from which the winning country can establish leadership on the moon and beyond.
It’s showtime.
It’s time to pick up the pace.
And it’s why the U.S. government is finally starting to mobilize around AI, nuclear power (both fission and fusion), and space exploration.
And that means these are industries that we want to be well invested in.