Quantum Breakthrough or Quantum Spin

In particle physics, every particle has an antiparticle.

An antiparticle has the same mass, but an opposite charge. And when a particle comes in contact with its antiparticle, they annihilate each other. Their combined mass is converted into energy.

But there is one exception.

Theorized in 1937 by an Italian physicist by the same name, a Majorana has been a hypothetical particle that is its own antiparticle. The particle and its antiparticle are identical.

Because of this unique property – because they are the same – they are stable. In other words, they do not annihilate each other.

The stability of the Majorana means it is less prone to interference.

And in the world of quantum computing, that could be a game changer.

The Allure of the Majorana

For the last two decades, Microsoft (MSFT) has been on a zealous pursuit to build a topological quantum computer.

Topological quantum computers are those that use quantum bits (qubits) from exotic quasiparticles…

And in Microsoft’s case, Majorana particles.

Last week, Microsoft announced that it has finally developed the world’s first topological quantum computing semiconductor, the Majorana 1. It claims to have successfully coaxed the Majorana particles into existence.

This complex and impressive piece of semiconductor and particle physics engineering is designed with eight topological qubits, and it fits comfortably in the palm of a hand.

Majorana 1 | Source: Microsoft

Now, the question is: Did Microsoft achieve something groundbreaking?

If we remember Bleeding Edge – Google’s Quantum Breakthrough, in December, Google released Willow, its latest superconducting quantum semiconductor with an impressive 105 qubits.

Here’s what I wrote…

Manufactured in Google’s own semiconductor manufacturing facility in Santa Barbara, California, Willow is a radical improvement over Sycamore.

And this time, there will be no debate over quantum supremacy – from anyone.

Using Google’s Random Circuit Sampling (RCS) benchmark, Willow can perform a computation in under five minutes that would take the world’s current fastest supercomputer – Frontier – 10 septillion years (10²⁵ years) to accomplish. That’s:

10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.

The above number exceeds the age of the universe. To be clear, that is not a “reasonable” time frame… hence, clearly, quantum supremacy.

Willow, with its 105 qubits, is noteworthy, to say the least.

To be fair to Microsoft and its eight topological qubits, though, not all qubits are equal.

Superconducting qubits are less stable than topological qubits, used in the Majorana 1. Topological qubits are more resistant to noise, which means they can maintain a state of coherence for longer periods.

At least, this is the multidecade technological bet that Microsoft has been making all these years.

Majorana 1 | Source: Microsoft

Microsoft is claiming with its latest announcement that the Majorana topological semiconductor can be scaled up to support 1 million topological qubits and still fit in your hand.

A one-million-qubit quantum computer is long thought of as the end game in quantum computing… a computing system that can solve the unsolvable… a computing system more powerful than all classical computing systems combined, by far.

But the topological quantum computer is far from perfect.

It is not error-free. And while it is more stable than a superconducting supercomputer like Google’s Willow or Rigetti’s (RGTI) Ankaa-3 (84 qubits), it still requires quantum error correction.

Ironically, after 20 years – even with the announcement of Majorana 1 – Microsoft remains years behind the rest of the quantum computing industry.

Marketing Fluff? Or Breakthrough…

Microsoft’s announcement of Majorana 1 makes me suspicious…

Like a mirage in the desert, it feels more like an illusion.

As I read the material from Microsoft, I couldn’t help but get the feeling that there was a heavy marketing spin from the announcement. Completely unlike Google’s announcement about Willow.

A few major question marks jumped out at me, like:

• The ability for Microsoft to scale from eight topological qubits to one million qubits in the same amount of space is completely theoretical. It would have been more believable if they were architecting for stringing multiple chips together to build a quantum supercomputer. Maintaining coherence at this density is extremely complex.
• Unlike Google or Rigetti, Microsoft didn’t disclose error rates or coherence times.
• Microsoft didn’t provide any computational benchmarks for Majorana 1.
• There was no information about Microsoft’s approach to error correction. There was only a mention that Majorana 1 would require “less error correction.” In the absence of any detail, that doesn’t mean much at all.
• Manufacturing a Majorana semiconductor with 1 million topological qubits would be ridiculously complex, perhaps so much so that it is impossible.

But aside from the points that I made above about Microsoft’s Majorana 1 “breakthrough,” the most telling indication of the lack of utility of Majorana 1 is from Microsoft’s own Azure Quantum computing offering.

After all, if Majorana 1 is so fantastic, wouldn’t Microsoft be offering it to its cloud customers?

Apparently not:

Source: Microsoft

Microsoft Azure Quantum services offer IonQ (IONQ), Quantinuum, and Rigetti (RGTI) quantum computers available in its cloud offering.

Where’s Majorana 1?

Microsoft Stands Alone

And that’s why Microsoft’s stock is down about 3% since it made its announcement about Majorana 1.

Comparatively, Google’s stock jumped 10% when it released the news about Willow. And Rigetti’s stock is up more than 1,000% since early October because it has been pioneering a quantum computing architecture that Google has largely been following.

The reality is that we don’t yet know which approach to quantum computing will lead to the first universal fault-tolerant quantum computer. Will it be superconducting, trapped ions, neutral atoms, photonic qubits, or topological?

What we do know, however, is the most rapid progress and investment are being made in the first four categories. Microsoft stands alone.

Microsoft’s and IBM’s quantum computing initiatives are far more like scientific research projects as opposed to engineering technology for practical and commercial use.

That may be fun and intellectually challenging for a small group of people, but it won’t move the share price, nor will it help solve the world’s “unsolvable” problems.

Jeff