Stranded in Space

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Stranded in space…

It sounds like the title of a science fiction drama series.

Unfortunately, it’s a reality for astronauts Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams, who arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) on June 6, expecting only to stay for a week.

To everyone’s surprise, they’re still there, with no scheduled date to return to Earth. But no need for us to worry, they’re happy as clams with their extended stay in space.

Source: Boeing

The reason for their predicament of being stuck on the ISS can be summed up in one word – Boeing.

Leaks & Lacking in Confidence

Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft has been having technical problems…

NASA is not confident that it’s safe to use to return the two astronauts home. As a result, it is stuck – docked – to the ISS, as shown below.

Source: Boeing

The problem is that there are helium leaks in the Starliner. That might not sound too bad, but it creates a dangerous problem.

The leaks are related to the Starliner’s propulsion system. The helium is used to control the amount of pressure in the propulsion system.

Without the right pressure, the Starliner’s thrusters can get too little or too much fuel. And those thrusters are necessary to safely and accurately get the Starliner – and its passengers – back to Earth.

Boeing remains “confident in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to return safely with crew.” NASA disagrees.

The crux of the issue is that Boeing thinks it knows what caused the failure of five thrusters on the flight to the ISS in June. In engineering terms, it doesn’t understand the root cause.

And that makes it very hard to be confident it won’t happen again on the return trip.

One option is to just send the Starliner back to Earth empty. At least that way, there will be no risk to the astronauts.

But even with this solution, there’s a sticking point… Boeing has software on the Starliner that doesn’t allow for automated undocking.

In other words: To undock, an astronaut has to be inside the Starliner.

That might not sound bad… But the second problem is that – unlike the SpaceX spacesuits – the astronauts’ spacesuits are too bulky to pass through the port to get back into the space station.

Naturally, Boeing has suggested that it can upload new software to the Starliner, but NASA’s confidence is so low in Boeing right now that it is worried that Boeing’s software upload will fail. Perhaps even result in the Starliner being marooned on the ISS.

That’s a major issue, considering the ISS only has two docking ports for supply missions and astronaut-carrying spacecraft. If one port is taken, that means there is only one operational port on the ISS.

And if there is one key planning principle in space… it’s to always have a backup.

So is all hope lost? Are there no alternatives?

Crew Dragon to the Rescue

The obvious solution should hardly come as a surprise to Bleeding Edge readers…

The prevailing plan appears to be to ask SpaceX to help save the day with its Crew Dragon spacecraft.

NASA’s thought is to modify the upcoming SpaceX Crew-9 mission. Rather than send up four astronauts, NASA will send up two in September on a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft.

Effectively, Williams and Wilmore would replace the roles of the two astronauts that NASA holds back, and they’ll all return most likely in February of next year.

This would be a horrible outcome for Boeing and its Starliner program.

The Starliner program was announced in 2010 and originally planned to be operational in 2015, which would have been well ahead of SpaceX.

I’ve lost count of how many hardware and software problems Boeing has had along the way, resulting in a delay of almost a decade and $1.5 billion in losses for Boeing.

Boeing’s share price is down 37% since December due to its problems with its commercial aircraft and is down more than 13% just this month as the Starliner problems have only added to its reputational damage.

But there are some winners in this debacle in space…

Two are certainly Wilmore and Williams who thought they’d have a chance to spend just one week in space. Now they have the opportunity of a lifetime to spend eight or nine months living and working in orbit on the ISS.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

And of course, SpaceX comes out in an incredible position due to Boeing’s failures.

A Sole Supplier?

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft has been in operation both for NASA and privately funded missions since 2020.

Prior to SpaceX’s Dragon, NASA relied on Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft to ferry crew back and forth from the space station. It was such an embarrassment.

SpaceX Dragon | Source: SpaceX

SpaceX has even built the most modern spacesuits in history for both intravehicular and extravehicular activity. Had Boeing used SpaceX spacesuits, it could have undocked the Starliner and returned to the ISS via a short spacewalk.

SpaceX Extravehicular Spacesuit | Source: SpaceX

SpaceX is now in the perfect position to not only win additional business from NASA but take all of the business that would have been shared with Boeing.

And, perhaps ironically, NASA would win if this happens.

While SpaceX would be in a powerful position as the sole supplier of shuttle services back and forth to the space station, SpaceX already provides these services at a fraction of the cost of what Boeing would charge.

NASA’s savings from using SpaceX exclusively would actually free up funding to support other space exploration projects. In fact, just last month, NASA canceled its VIPER rover mission to the moon, which was intended to search the Moon for ice and other resources.

It’s worth remembering that the U.S. and China are in an all-out space race to find resources and establish a lunar outpost. I’ve written about it in Outer Limits – China’s Lunar Ambitions…

NASA’s VIPER Rover | Source: NASA

SpaceX is on an incredible roll. It has had the most incredible string of achievements that the aerospace industry has ever seen. The company was valued this April at $180 billion in its last venture capital raise. That compares to Boeing’s $146 billion current valuation.

SpaceX could absolutely be a public company, but Musk has been vocal about the difficulties of being a public company. He’d rather just build and focus on getting the Starship to the Moon and Mars.

That will come soon enough.

But for now… NASA, just make sure the stranded astronauts get home safely…

On a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft.