The Emerging Lunar Economy

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Yesterday was an ugly day in the markets.

Stocks dropped by about $1.75 trillion over the course of the day. The volatility is largely due to the uncertainty around tariffs and reduction in U.S. government spending.

Many are suggesting a recession.

But one has to wonder… If simply reducing the egregious and nonsensical U.S. government spending results in a recession, then did the U.S. have any real economic growth over the last few years? I’d happily argue that we’ve been in a recession for the last couple of years.

Despite the turbulence that we are feeling right now, the market will settle down, and the U.S. economy will get into growth mode. Increased energy production leading to lower energy prices, lower interest rates, increased investment, and radical improvements in technology are going to lead to impressive economic growth.

We have years of a productivity boom in front of us… along with the most incredible advancements that we’ll ever see in our lifetimes.

That’s worth remembering at times like this.

When the “noise” is clear and present here on Earth, it’s easy for us to forget the big picture of everything that’s going on.

Steps Towards a Lunar Economy

This January, in The Bleeding Edge – Ad Astra, I wrote about SpaceX’s 100th launch from Complex 39A on NASA’s Kennedy Space Center on Merritt Island, Florida. Yes, the 100th launch from that launch pad marked a milestone, but that’s not why the launch was so exciting.

It’s what the SpaceX Falcon 9 payload was carrying that was so exciting.

On that Falcon 9 were not one but two missions to the moon.

The first was Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost spacecraft carrying 10 instruments and the ability for subsurface drilling on the moon.

The second is the Resilience lander from Tokyo, Japan-based ispace (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 9348).

And if that weren’t enough, on February 26, a third moon mission launched off Complex 39A, on a separate SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying Intuitive Machines (LUNR) IM-2 mission with its Athena spacecraft destined for a location near the south pole of the moon.

Three spacecraft – built by three private sector companies – sent on their way via SpaceX, another private sector company, all on a mission to advance our understanding of the lunar surface and eventually open a lunar economy.

These types of missions used to be exclusively in the realm of the governments of the U.S., Russia, and China. But no longer.

This last week has been exciting as all three missions have made their way to the moon.

Three Space Missions, One Week

The most notable of the three is an ambitious mission by Firefly Aerospace and its Blue Ghost spacecraft.

Blue Ghost successfully landed on the moon on March 2 in Mare Crisium, on the near side of the moon.

Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost on Moon | Source: Firefly Aerospace

Blue Ghost had been in orbit around the moon for 16 days in preparation for landing. Using a vision-based terrain navigation system, Blue Ghost achieved a perfect landing within 1 meter of the desired landing location. How’s that for precision?

The spacecraft carries an important camera to measure the impact of rocket plumes on the lunar regolith. This is important for future missions to understand the extent of regolith erosion caused by landing activities. It will help determine how closely large spacecraft can land to each other and lunar outpost structures.

Blue Ghost also carries a precise prism reflector that uses lasers to determine the distance between the Earth and the Moon within 1 millimeter of accuracy.

The spacecraft also has a drill for collecting subsurface samples. Blue Ghost will be operational for about two weeks and will produce a lot of very useful data and analysis.

Unfortunately, Intuitive Machines IM-2 mission wasn’t as fortunate in its mission to the south pole of the moon.

The mission was looking good on March 4 as it was orbiting the moon in preparation for a landing attempt…

Intuitive Machine’s Athena Spacecraft Above Lunar South Pole | Source: Intuitive Machines

But that was as good as it would get for Intuitive Machines. While the spacecraft did make it to the notoriously rugged Mons Mouton region of the south pole of the Moon, the Athena spacecraft did not successfully land on the surface. It ended up on its side, unable to deploy solar panels and generate power.

Intuitive Machine’s Athena Spacecraft Tipped Over on the Moon | Source: Intuitive Machines

The above picture shows two of Athena’s legs up in the air with a pale blue crescent Earth in the distance. Quite a shot.

The problem was that Athena missed its landing spot by about 400 meters, putting it in a precarious landing location. It’s unfortunate because Athena, the size of a small car, was also carrying two smaller spacecraft – one a hopping robot called Grace and another a rover that carries an ice-hunting drill.

The south pole of the moon is believed to be the home of some of the most significant resources of water ice available on the moon. That’s precisely why NASA’s Artemis program is targeting this region for its Artemis III mission.

Artemis III will be the first crewed landing on the moon since Apollo 17, currently targeted for mid-2027 – a bit more than two years away… not long at all.

Large water ice resources are the key to a lunar outpost – providing water, oxygen, and the resources for rocket fuel for further missions afar.

For that reason, it’s a shame that Intuitive Machines IM-2 mission failed to land upright and set its ice-finding rover on the loose. And as a public company (LUNR), its share price tipped over, as well.

10-day Chart of LUNR

But we should keep in mind, space is hard. And there are just some things that are difficult to discover in simulations. We have to put the technology to the test in the field, learn, get back up, iterate, and get back after it again.

And that was actually the point of both the Blue Ghost and IM-2 missions.

The New Breed of Aerospace Companies

Both missions were sponsored by NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, designed to accelerate missions to the moon by using innovative, fast-moving aerospace companies capable of launching missions to the moon for a fraction of the price of what used to be “normal.”

Intuitive Machine’s IM-2 mission only cost $62.5 million. That compares to missions of the past that took years to build and launch and cost anywhere from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars.

Intuitive Machines is already gearing up for its IM-3 mission next year, and it has a contract with NASA for a fourth mission scheduled for 2027 under the CLPS as well.

This kind of fast, lower-cost iteration and experimentation is what enabled SpaceX to become the most valuable, innovative, and transformative aerospace company in history. And it is going to be the key to enabling NASA to achieve its targets of a crewed mission landing on the moon by 2027.

2025 is an exciting year for lunar exploration. Japan’s ispace and its Resilience lunar lander have already successfully completed a lunar flyby and are preparing to enter into a low-velocity lunar orbit. On board is a water electrolyzer, food production equipment, a deep space radiation probe, and a micro-rover designed to collect lunar regolith.

And that’s not all for this year:

• Now that Blue Origin has had success with its New Glenn rocket, it opens the possibility of sending the Blue Moon Mark 1 later this year. This is an uncrewed cargo lander capable of carrying three metric tons to the south-polar region. The purpose would be to pre-position supplies on the moon before the crewed Artemis III arrives.
• Astrobotic is scheduled to launch its Griffin Mission 1 in the fourth quarter, which will carry NASA’s VIPER rover to the south pole region designed to hunt for water ice.
• And there is a chance that SpaceX will send an uncrewed prototype of its Starship Human Landing System to the moon before the end of the year. SpaceX is iterating quickly on its Starship design, appears to have mastered its reusable first-stage booster and rocket technology, and I fully expect several successful missions to low Earth orbit (LEO) this year.

This new breed of both public and private aerospace companies gives us a lot of reasons to be hopeful and excited.

I’m expecting at least a couple of IPOs this year, as well as some acquisitions that will make the industry that much more exciting for investors.

Jeff