“The future should look like the future.”
So said Elon Musk at Tesla’s We, Robot event held on October 10th.
It seems like such an obvious thing to say – of course, the future should look like the future.
But in practice, it rarely does.
Companies tend to iterate slowly on product development, heavily anchoring their designs to the last product generation. Too big of a leap is perceived as too risky, too uncomfortable. Safer to stick closer to “what’s worked” in the past.
The thinking is that if a new product is too radical, the market won’t like it. If the goals are too technologically ambitious, they will likely fail…
The Tesla Cybertruck is a perfect example.
Many thought it was a gimmick and would never go to production. I lost count of how many people criticized Tesla and claimed that the Cybertruck was too difficult to manufacture and would result in failure.
Its design looks like something out of a science fiction movie. It looks like it would be well-suited for Mars, even more so than here on Earth.
Cybertruck on Earth | Source: Tesla
And yet, not only did the Cybertruck enter mass production… not only is it capable of full self-driving (FSD)… but Tesla sold more Cybertrucks in the U.S. in the third quarter than all electric vehicle trucks manufactured by Ford, GMC, and Rivian combined.
It appears that Musk isn’t the only one who thinks that the future should look like the future. Perhaps the market is ready for more radical change and improvements. Perhaps they’re hungry for it.
That’s what Tesla’s We, Robot event held on October 10th was about… the future.
More specifically, the future of transportation.
Much of the media was critical of the event.
It seems like a bit of a sport to be critical of anything Elon Musk is doing these days.
Wall Street didn’t like it, either. The stock is still down almost 8% since the event.
Tesla’s big ‘We, Robot’ event criticized for ‘parlor tricks’ and vague timelines for robots, Cybercab, Robovan…
– VentureBeat
Elon Musk Lost $15 Billion After Tesla’s Cybercab Reveal…
– The Verge
Tesla stock sell-off after robotaxi event could be just the beginning, pros warn…
– Yahoo! Finance
Ah yes.. the “experts” and the “pros” weigh in. Should we be concerned by all the critics?
Or by the Wall Street analysts who didn’t like that they’ll have to wait until 2026 before the Cybercab revenue starts to come online?
No, we should not.
It’s remarkable how sophomoric and – oftentimes – idiotic the criticisms were of the event.
They lacked complete substance, missed the big picture entirely, and completely discounted the remarkable track record of Elon Musk and his teams over the last 20 years.
The We, Robot event wasn’t about next quarter’s production numbers or this year’s revenue. It was literally about the future of mass transportation. It was the terrestrial equivalent of SpaceX’s mission to enable humanity to become a multi-planetary species.
And that future is all about autonomous technology.
Why? Because Musk and his team at Tesla are solving for different problems than any other car manufacturer.
Tesla is developing technology that will be at least 10 times safer than human drivers. Tesla is solving for dramatically reduced traffic conditions. And it’s developing a product capable of providing mass transportation at a cost of at least 80% less than what it costs to ride a bus today.
Save lives, reduce traffic, and make personalized, point-to-point transportation affordable to the mass market.
That’s what the robotaxi – now called the Cybercab – is all about.
Tesla Cybercab | Source: Tesla
It’s a stunning car.
And it looks like the future.
Tesla Cybercab | Source: Tesla
It’s a two-seat design. As we can see above, the doors open upwards, providing for easy entry. And there is no steering wheel or pedals on the floor. Just two seats and a big screen. Your own personal transportation lounge…
Why just two seats? Simple, about 85% of all passenger rides in the U.S. have just one or two passengers. That’s the mass market.
And keeping the Cybercab to a smaller size has a direct impact on costs. Musk said that the Cybercab will be below $30,000.
Is that a reasonable goal? The least expensive Tesla Model 3 sells for $42,490 without any incentives at all. Is it really such a stretch to believe that a significantly smaller car, with less materials and labor, could drop by 30% in price? No, it’s not a stretch at all.
Naturally, without a steering wheel or pedals, the Cybercab is designed entirely for fully autonomous transport. There’s no other way.
Tesla demonstrated 20 Cybercabs at We, Robot, which drove attendees around the Warner Brothers 30-acre production facility, to give riders a feel for what the future of transportation would look like.
Not only will it be comfortable, it will be safe and cheap. The unsubsidized cost-per-mile for public transportation in the U.S. is about $1 a mile on a bus.
The Cybercab will be able to deliver point-to-point autonomous transportation at just $0.20 a mile representing an 80% drop in cost, putting personalized transportation not only in reach of the entire population but at a price point where it will be cheaper than today’s public transportation.
And it will be at least 10 times safer than today’s human drivers.
What’s not to be excited about? This isn’t just some fluffy idea. It’s not a product mockup. My Tesla drives me around every week on full self-driving software. I don’t touch the wheel until I get to my destination. It’s already real.
But hang on…
Wall Street doesn’t like the fact that Tesla doesn’t intend to get the Cybercab into production until 2026.
“Vague production timeline,” they scoffed. Musk fails again.
What they missed is that unsupervised, full self-driving rides will be enabled in Texas and California next year with the Model 3 and Model Y. “Unsupervised” means that the passenger can literally sleep while being transported.
And the robotic taxi service will be enabled on Model 3 and Model Y EVs in those states, as well. Tesla owners will be able to opt-in their EVs to go to work for them. How significant will that revenue stream be?
The timing for when all this happens is no longer a technology issue. It is a regulatory issue. And we’ll see the first states approve the use of this unsupervised technology in 2025.
But what about rides for more than two people?
This was the most unexpected announcement at We, Robot.
Tesla Robovan | Source: Tesla
Musk unveiled this 20-seater, art deco, fully autonomous vehicle, the Robovan (pronounced ruh-BO-vehn, according to Musk, rather than Robo-van).
“Toaster-shaped”… they called it.
“Something out of an Art Deco fever dream.”
Just like the Cybercab, the Robovan looks like the future.
It doesn’t take much imagination to envision that these autonomous people-movers would have great utility in both public transportation for heavily traveled routes, as well as for events or shuttles to some kind of central attraction.
Naturally, with a people mover like the Robovan, costs per mile drop even further, down to about $0.05 a mile.
Fantastical.
And of course, there’s more…
The event wouldn’t have been a party without Optimus present – in force.
The Tesla humanoid robots were everywhere – dancing, serving drinks, interacting with the crowd, and handing out gifts.
Optimus Working at the Party | Source: Tesla
The critics howled that Optimus wasn’t “real” artificial intelligence (AI) and that human teleoperators were helping out.
They insisted it was way too advanced for technology to handle such an unstructured environment.
There probably was some human-in-the-loop support for the event. After all, Optimus is still a work in progress, under development, and in training.
But again, the critics missed the point entirely.
The event wasn’t about Optimus. Optimus was there both for fun and to give a full vision of the future. A future full of autonomy and abundance.
And we shouldn’t forget, the autonomous technology that has been developed for Tesla’s EVs is already here…
And it applies directly to Optimus’ autonomous capabilities. Tesla EVs drive themselves. Is it hard to believe that an Optimus can autonomously navigate a crowd or a street? Who cares that it can’t pierce your olive with a tiny skewer for your martini just yet?
Musk and his team at Tesla have already delivered. The autonomous technology already works. And it improves significantly every single month.
And for the critics, perhaps those who haven’t yet personally experienced the technology, does it make sense to bet against Musk and his teams?
Does anyone really think he’ll fail at mass-producing the Cybercab, Robovan, and Optimus?
No way. No way in hell.
Tesla gave us a glimpse of the future. A future full of abundance, where the costs of goods and services fall, not rise.
This is a future we all should be endlessly excited about, and it’s far closer than most imagine.
Forget about a dystopian future.
The future should look like the future.
The movie I, Robot in 2035 (Left) | Tesla’s We, Robot (Right)
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
