This Recession Indicator is Flashing

Jeff Clark
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Jan 21, 2023
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Bleeding Edge
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4 min read

Editor’s Note: Today, we’re handing the reigns to colleague and master trader Jeff Clark. Jeff has been a professional trader for more than three decades. He’s seen it all.

Now, he says a rare opportunity is approaching for investors… if they have the fortitude to grab it. Read on…


Teeka Tiwari

2023 will be a year of opportunity…

But there’s good news and bad news.

The good news is we’ll have a chance to buy high-quality stocks at dirt-cheap prices.

The bad news is the bear will take one more swipe at the stock market before we get to the good news.

That will scare most folks. They’ll hit the sell button in a panic. But as you’ll see today, that’s exactly the time to step in and buy.

Recession Ahead

Why do I think things will get worse before they get better?

As a trader, I’m a charts guy.

And here’s a monthly chart of the Treasury “yield curve”…

This chart shows the difference – or “spread” – in yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month T-bill.

Normally, the yield curve is positive. The further out in time a bond matures, the higher its yield will be. This rewards investors for the extra time risk.

A negative yield curve is when short-term bills offer a higher yield than long-term notes. And it often happens right before a recession.

The first three red arrows on the chart mark yield curve inversions right before recessions hit.

They also happened right before big stock market falls.

When the yield curve reached its most negative levels, stocks were closer to their bull market highs than they were to their bear market lows.

By the time the bear markets ended, in December 2002 and March 2009, the yield curve was well into positive territory. Same goes for the COVID-inspired plunge that bottomed in March 2020.

If history is any judge, we’ll want to see the yield curve go positive before we get the all-clear on stocks.

We’re Going on a Bargain Hunt

Take another look at the chart above.

The yield curve is deeper into negative territory now than at any time over the past 30 years.

That tells us we’re still months away from the end of the bear market.

But that’s not a bad thing…

Bear markets are good.

They correct the excesses that build up in the final stages of a bull market. That’s when too much money chases stock prices higher. This jams up valuations to nosebleed levels.

Bear markets are painful for everyone. And they’re particularly painful for folks who are overly exposed, or even leveraged, to stocks.

But they are also opportunities for bargain hunters who’ve kept some dry powder.

There’s only one problem… When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to.

Don’t Let This Opportunity Pass You By

I’ve been trading professionally for more than 30 years.

And I can tell you from experience, it’s not easy to put money into the market when stocks are plummeting.

It’s not just the falling prices that are scary. It’s also the negative headlines and the panic in the air.

Think 2008 or the pandemic-induced crash in early 2020. At times like these, folks become paralyzed. So, they let rare opportunities pass them by.

Fortunately, there’s a way you can take advantage of these opportunities without leaving your money at risk in the market too.

I’ve created a trading strategy that can help spot these pre-determined opportunities, before they happen…

In fact, it’s based on what I used to double my net worth in 2008.

And it works best in volatile bear markets like today. You see, over the next 44 days I believe we’re going to witness hundreds of stocks crash across the market.

But with my strategy – and a little bit of courage – you can use this opportunity to accelerate your retirement…

You don’t have to put large sums at risk. You can set aside a small amount each trade.

And to help you use the looming crash to your advantage, I’m hosting a special event on Wednesday, January 25 at 8 p.m. ET entirely for free.

When you attend, you’ll receive the names of three stocks I’m targeting in the coming days. And you’ll be able to gain access to my proprietary calendar that helps me spot opportunities… before they happen.

To register with one click, go right here.

Best regards and good trading,

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Jeff Clark


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