Your Kids Will Never Have to Learn How to Drive

This past Thanksgiving weekend in the U.S. – specifically Saturday, November 30th – was one of the most important dates in tech history.

Ironically, not many are talking about it. Very few even know about it.

But in the future, it will be recognized as a historic inflection point.

As planned, Tesla quietly released version 13 (v13) of its full self-driving (FSD) software.

It’s nothing short of jaw-dropping.

Level 5 Autonomy

As a reminder, version 13 is the release of Tesla’s FSD software that has been planned to deliver fully autonomous driving technology – equivalent to what’s typically referred to as Level 5 autonomy.

And every time Tesla jumps from one major version of software – for example, from version 12 to version 13 – it’s a major upgrade of the artificial intelligence. It’s where I’ve always seen the largest jumps in performance.

Tesla v13 Release Notes | Source: Tesla

Version 13 doesn’t disappoint. It’s stunning.

It represents another leap in the entire end-to-end, artificial neural network that enables full self-driving.

What’s striking about this release of the software is that there is no longer any hesitation in the software. It simply drives like a great human driver, consistently, knowing how to navigate every condition.

For those subscribers who haven’t experienced this technology, I wish I could take you for a ride in a Tesla running this latest software. It’s hard to convey the significance of this moment, and the implications without having experienced it directly.

For those who haven’t, the other option is to rent a Tesla with full self-driving software for a day to see what it’s like. I promise you won’t be disappointed. You’ll be blown away.

For those curious, you can also check out a video of the technology in action. The below video is just a short clip of version 13.2 in action. The entire video which is a sped-up recording of an hour and forty minutes of driving through Los Angeles traffic completely hands-free can be found here.

Source: Whole Mars Catalog

For those who have a chance to experience this incredible technology, I’d like to emphasize that this isn’t just a novelty. It’s not just something incredible or cool.

This technology is going to change the entire automotive industry. It will change the entire public transportation industry. And it will radically change the economics of road-based transportation.

Autonomy is the key.

Autonomy is what unlocks the revolution in transportation. Full autonomy will free up time, enhance productivity for both consumers and businesses, and create an entirely new industry of safe, point-to-point autonomous transportation cheaper than any non-subsidized public transportation.

Tesla Will Soon Be “Unsupervised”

For anyone who had or has any doubts about Tesla’s ability to make Cybercab or a Tesla autonomous ride-hailing service a reality like the short video shown below, version 13 of FSD should put those concerns to rest.

Cybercab | Source: Tesla

To be fair, Tesla’s latest FSD software is still denoted as “Supervised” which means that the passenger in the driver’s seat still needs to stay alert and looking forward. Tesla’s software monitors the passenger in the driver’s seat via a camera in the rearview mirror assembly to ensure that they are paying attention and not sleeping or looking down at their smartphone.

But this is done for the explicit purpose of avoiding getting into regulatory trouble. The FSD software is now capable of hands-free unsupervised point-to-point transportation.

At this stage, the “Unsupervised” version has nothing to do with the software, it is determined by when a state, for example, gives the regulatory approval to offer unsupervised autonomous rides to consumers. The two most likely states to provide approval in 2025 are Texas and California.

And after those states allow the technology, it won’t take long before the rest follow after having overwhelming safety data for Tesla’s FSD software.

11 Billion Miles and Counting

To date, Tesla has already collected more than 9 billion miles of video/data from Tesla’s driving themselves on AutoPilot. And as of October this year, it has collected data on more than 2 billion miles driven on FSD Supervised with more than 1 billion of that on version 12 FSD software.

That’s more than 11 billion miles in total of real-world self-driving data collected. By my own calculations, Tesla is collecting more than 1 billion miles of FSD data every 65 days. And the rate of data collection has gone exponential.

My prediction is that by no later than April 2025 Tesla will have collected around 6 billion miles entirely on FSD Supervised, a target that Musk has stated is what will be required to gain regulatory approval for FSD Unsupervised driving.

When that happens, we’ll be able to recline the seat, lean our head back, and take a nap while we are transported to our destination. Magical.

Tesla’s Teleoperation Team

Now I know that some of us have some lingering concerns. For example, what about those fringe cases? What about that 0.001% of the time that our Tesla or our Cybercab encounters something that it just doesn’t know how to deal with? After all, it happens to us human drivers, so quirky things will happen to self-driving cars as well.

A quick look at Tesla’s job posting provides us with direct insight into how these rare situations will be handled.

Source: Tesla

This job posting is for Tesla’s “Teleoperation Team” which “is charged with providing remote access to our robotaxis and humanoid robots.”

I’ve been writing about this for years. There will be human “backups” capable of teleporting (teleoperating) into the robot – either a car or humanoid robot, in the rare cases where assistance is needed.

Tesla has already built the technology to remotely operate and control its vehicles and robots. And it will have a teleoperations team on standby to assist whenever needed.

So even if we’re “asleep at the wheel” and our Tesla gets “stuck” in some kind of unusual situation, a Tesla teleoperation team member will teleport into our autonomous car with full 360 vision and figure out a solution and even talk to the passengers if necessary.

Full autonomy just got very real, just a few days ago.

And it’s just a software download away for almost all the Teslas on the road today. And when that happens, the rest of the automotive industry will be scrambling to catch up.

Regards,

Jeff

P.S. Elon Musk is about to revolutionize the automotive industry with this full self-driving upgrade.

We’ve known this technology and the shift in transportation was coming. But, as Elon Musk has always been very secretive about his suppliers, it’s been less known which companies he’s tapped into for the underlying technology needed to power it.

But I’ve identified a company that Musk is leaning on to supply a key technology to make this autonomous driving technology possible… and I believe he’ll reveal it soon. And when he does, it’s going to soar into 2025 and beyond.

It’s a great way to play this trend before the autonomous Tesla fleet hits the road. You can go here to find out more.